2196.HK
FOSUN PHARMAClosed2196.HK discounted cash flow valuation
2196.HK Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 10.3% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 3.8% in this model.
Model: 3.8% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 6.03% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | HKD 6.93B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (72% of EV) | HKD 17.73B |
| Enterprise value | HKD 24.66B |
| + Cash & investments | HKD 18.81B |
| − Total debt | −HKD 45.85B |
| Equity value | −HKD 2.38B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 551.94M |
| Value per share | HKD -4.31 |
| Market cap | HKD 45.98B |
CNY statements converted at 1.172 HKD.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 16.9% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 49.9% |
| WACC | 6.03% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.03% | 16.97 | 31.14 | 54.57 | 100.74 | 234.01 |
| 5.03% | -1.90 | 4.52 | 13.49 | 26.87 | 48.99 |
| 6.03% | -12.43 | -8.88 | -4.31 | 1.76 | 10.23 |
| 7.03% | -19.15 | -16.94 | -14.25 | -10.88 | -6.56 |
| 8.03% | -23.81 | -22.33 | -20.58 | -18.49 | -15.94 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | HKD 784.05M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.8% | HKD 813.85M | 0.943 | HKD 767.56M |
| Year 2 | 3.8% | HKD 844.77M | 0.889 | HKD 751.42M |
| Year 3 | 3.8% | HKD 876.87M | 0.839 | HKD 735.62M |
| Year 4 | 3.8% | HKD 910.20M | 0.791 | HKD 720.14M |
| Year 5 | 3.8% | HKD 944.78M | 0.746 | HKD 705.00M |
| Year 6 | 3.5% | HKD 978.23M | 0.704 | HKD 688.44M |
| Year 7 | 3.3% | HKD 1.01B | 0.664 | HKD 670.59M |
| Year 8 | 3.0% | HKD 1.04B | 0.626 | HKD 651.55M |
| Year 9 | 2.8% | HKD 1.07B | 0.590 | HKD 631.46M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | HKD 1.10B | 0.557 | HKD 610.43M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.