1216.TW
UNI-PRESIDENT ENTERPRISES CORPClosed1216.TW discounted cash flow valuation
1216.TW Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -10.0% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 10.5% in this model.
Model: 10.5% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 6.14% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | TWD 563.09B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (74% of EV) | TWD 1.60T |
| Enterprise value | TWD 2.16T |
| + Cash & investments | TWD 153.70B |
| − Total debt | −TWD 315.20B |
| Equity value | TWD 2.00T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 5.68B |
| Value per share | TWD 351.89 |
| Market cap | TWD 444.33B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 24.8% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 41.5% |
| WACC | 6.14% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.14% | 532.50 | 649.19 | 837.02 | 1,189.57 | 2,092.93 |
| 5.14% | 372.86 | 427.32 | 502.39 | 612.53 | 789.82 |
| 6.14% | 282.26 | 312.88 | 351.89 | 403.33 | 474.23 |
| 7.14% | 223.97 | 243.15 | 266.46 | 295.39 | 332.27 |
| 8.14% | 183.39 | 196.29 | 211.48 | 229.61 | 251.65 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | TWD 47.43B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 10.5% | TWD 52.41B | 0.942 | TWD 49.37B |
| Year 2 | 10.5% | TWD 57.91B | 0.888 | TWD 51.40B |
| Year 3 | 10.5% | TWD 63.99B | 0.836 | TWD 53.51B |
| Year 4 | 10.5% | TWD 70.71B | 0.788 | TWD 55.71B |
| Year 5 | 10.5% | TWD 78.13B | 0.742 | TWD 58.00B |
| Year 6 | 8.9% | TWD 85.09B | 0.699 | TWD 59.51B |
| Year 7 | 7.3% | TWD 91.30B | 0.659 | TWD 60.16B |
| Year 8 | 5.7% | TWD 96.50B | 0.621 | TWD 59.91B |
| Year 9 | 4.1% | TWD 100.46B | 0.585 | TWD 58.76B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | TWD 102.97B | 0.551 | TWD 56.74B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.