0857.HK
PETROCHINAClosed0857.HK discounted cash flow valuation
0857.HK Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -36.0% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against -5.0% in this model.
Model: -5.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.40% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | HKD 961.31B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (58% of EV) | HKD 1.32T |
| Enterprise value | HKD 2.28T |
| + Cash & investments | HKD 333.76B |
| − Total debt | −HKD 468.28B |
| Equity value | HKD 2.15T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 21.10B |
| Value per share | HKD 101.90 |
| Market cap | HKD 1.89T |
CNY statements converted at 1.172 HKD.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.61 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.25% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 23.9% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 19.8% |
| WACC | 7.40% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.40% | 134.55 | 150.22 | 171.30 | 201.16 | 246.73 |
| 6.40% | 107.17 | 116.29 | 127.75 | 142.58 | 162.51 |
| 7.40% | 89.01 | 94.86 | 101.90 | 110.53 | 121.37 |
| 8.40% | 76.08 | 80.07 | 84.74 | 90.28 | 96.94 |
| 9.40% | 66.38 | 69.24 | 72.52 | 76.30 | 80.73 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | HKD 171.34B | — | — |
| Year 1 | -5.0% | HKD 162.78B | 0.931 | HKD 151.56B |
| Year 2 | -5.0% | HKD 154.64B | 0.867 | HKD 134.06B |
| Year 3 | -5.0% | HKD 146.91B | 0.807 | HKD 118.58B |
| Year 4 | -5.0% | HKD 139.56B | 0.752 | HKD 104.89B |
| Year 5 | -5.0% | HKD 132.58B | 0.700 | HKD 92.78B |
| Year 6 | -3.5% | HKD 127.94B | 0.652 | HKD 83.37B |
| Year 7 | -2.0% | HKD 125.38B | 0.607 | HKD 76.07B |
| Year 8 | -0.5% | HKD 124.76B | 0.565 | HKD 70.47B |
| Year 9 | 1.0% | HKD 126.00B | 0.526 | HKD 66.27B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | HKD 129.15B | 0.490 | HKD 63.25B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.