011070.KS
LG InnotekOpen011070.KS discounted cash flow valuation
011070.KS Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 62.6% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 16.7% in this model.
Model: 16.7% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 14.82% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | KRW 861.45B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (40% of EV) | KRW 572.40B |
| Enterprise value | KRW 1.43T |
| + Cash & investments | KRW 1.24T |
| − Total debt | −KRW 2.18T |
| Equity value | KRW 491.30B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 23.66M |
| Value per share | KRW 20,761.25 |
| Market cap | KRW 10.61T |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 2.35 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 16.97% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 16.5% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 17.1% |
| WACC | 14.82% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.82% | 30,164.44 | 32,290.81 | 34,622.15 | 37,189.78 | 40,031.72 |
| 13.82% | 23,511.05 | 25,208.54 | 27,055.07 | 29,071.31 | 31,281.91 |
| 14.82% | 17,900.94 | 19,275.69 | 20,761.25 | 22,371.66 | 24,123.48 |
| 15.82% | 13,113.00 | 14,240.20 | 15,451.34 | 16,756.24 | 18,166.32 |
| 16.82% | 8,984.01 | 9,918.18 | 10,917.00 | 11,987.46 | 13,137.65 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | KRW 85.74B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 16.7% | KRW 100.06B | 0.871 | KRW 87.14B |
| Year 2 | 16.7% | KRW 116.76B | 0.759 | KRW 88.57B |
| Year 3 | 16.7% | KRW 136.26B | 0.661 | KRW 90.02B |
| Year 4 | 16.7% | KRW 159.02B | 0.575 | KRW 91.49B |
| Year 5 | 16.7% | KRW 185.58B | 0.501 | KRW 92.99B |
| Year 6 | 13.9% | KRW 211.30B | 0.436 | KRW 92.21B |
| Year 7 | 11.0% | KRW 234.58B | 0.380 | KRW 89.16B |
| Year 8 | 8.2% | KRW 253.77B | 0.331 | KRW 84.00B |
| Year 9 | 5.3% | KRW 267.32B | 0.288 | KRW 77.07B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | KRW 274.01B | 0.251 | KRW 68.80B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.