009150.KS
SamsungElecMechOpen009150.KS discounted cash flow valuation
009150.KS Fair Value
Reverse DCF: no growth rate between −50% and +100% a year matches today's price.
Model: 25.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 17.33% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | KRW 2.82T |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (37% of EV) | KRW 1.65T |
| Enterprise value | KRW 4.47T |
| + Cash & investments | KRW 3.33T |
| − Total debt | −KRW 3.09T |
| Equity value | KRW 4.71T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 72.69M |
| Value per share | KRW 64,802.97 |
| Market cap | KRW 104.78T |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 2.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 17.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 18.3% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 2.9% |
| WACC | 17.33% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.33% | 73,610.24 | 75,337.75 | 77,198.99 | 79,210.21 | 81,390.43 |
| 16.33% | 67,570.47 | 68,994.11 | 70,519.88 | 72,159.27 | 73,925.57 |
| 17.33% | 62,353.75 | 63,538.76 | 64,802.97 | 66,154.66 | 67,603.33 |
| 18.33% | 57,809.88 | 58,805.00 | 59,862.35 | 60,988.03 | 62,188.95 |
| 19.33% | 53,822.62 | 54,664.84 | 55,556.56 | 56,502.31 | 57,507.22 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | KRW 226.31B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.0% | KRW 282.88B | 0.852 | KRW 241.10B |
| Year 2 | 25.0% | KRW 353.60B | 0.726 | KRW 256.86B |
| Year 3 | 25.0% | KRW 442.00B | 0.619 | KRW 273.65B |
| Year 4 | 25.0% | KRW 552.50B | 0.528 | KRW 291.54B |
| Year 5 | 25.0% | KRW 690.63B | 0.450 | KRW 310.60B |
| Year 6 | 20.5% | KRW 832.21B | 0.383 | KRW 318.99B |
| Year 7 | 16.0% | KRW 965.36B | 0.327 | KRW 315.37B |
| Year 8 | 11.5% | KRW 1.08T | 0.278 | KRW 299.70B |
| Year 9 | 7.0% | KRW 1.15T | 0.237 | KRW 273.32B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | KRW 1.18T | 0.202 | KRW 238.77B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.