002092.SZ
ZHONGTAI CHEMICALClosed002092.SZ discounted cash flow valuation
002092.SZ Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 23.1% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against -5.0% in this model.
Model: -5.0% from 3-yr revenue CAGR (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 4.77% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CNY 1.73B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (77% of EV) | CNY 5.85B |
| Enterprise value | CNY 7.59B |
| + Cash & investments | CNY 7.04B |
| − Total debt | −CNY 38.24B |
| Equity value | −CNY 23.61B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 2.58B |
| Value per share | CNY -9.17 |
| Market cap | CNY 11.20B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 25.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 77.3% |
| WACC | 4.77% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.77% | -6.64 | -3.41 | — | — | — |
| 3.77% | -9.01 | -8.26 | -6.94 | -3.88 | — |
| 4.77% | -9.93 | -9.62 | -9.17 | -8.46 | -7.21 |
| 5.77% | -10.42 | -10.25 | -10.04 | -9.74 | -9.32 |
| 6.77% | -10.72 | -10.62 | -10.50 | -10.34 | -10.14 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CNY 274.11M | — | — |
| Year 1 | -5.0% | CNY 260.41M | 0.954 | CNY 248.55M |
| Year 2 | -5.0% | CNY 247.39M | 0.911 | CNY 225.37M |
| Year 3 | -5.0% | CNY 235.02M | 0.870 | CNY 204.36M |
| Year 4 | -5.0% | CNY 223.27M | 0.830 | CNY 185.30M |
| Year 5 | -5.0% | CNY 212.10M | 0.792 | CNY 168.02M |
| Year 6 | -3.5% | CNY 204.68M | 0.756 | CNY 154.76M |
| Year 7 | -2.0% | CNY 200.59M | 0.722 | CNY 144.76M |
| Year 8 | -0.5% | CNY 199.58M | 0.689 | CNY 137.48M |
| Year 9 | 1.0% | CNY 201.58M | 0.657 | CNY 132.53M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CNY 206.62M | 0.628 | CNY 129.66M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.