000932.SZ
VALIN STEELClosed000932.SZ discounted cash flow valuation
000932.SZ Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 9.3% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 19.6% in this model.
Model: 19.6% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 6.33% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CNY 555.35M |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (76% of EV) | CNY 1.74B |
| Enterprise value | CNY 2.29B |
| + Cash & investments | CNY 38.99B |
| − Total debt | −CNY 15.87B |
| Equity value | CNY 25.42B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 6.85B |
| Value per share | CNY 3.71 |
| Market cap | CNY 24.40B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 19.7% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 39.4% |
| WACC | 6.33% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.33% | 3.86 | 3.96 | 4.11 | 4.37 | 4.94 |
| 5.33% | 3.73 | 3.77 | 3.84 | 3.93 | 4.07 |
| 6.33% | 3.65 | 3.68 | 3.71 | 3.75 | 3.81 |
| 7.33% | 3.60 | 3.61 | 3.63 | 3.66 | 3.69 |
| 8.33% | 3.56 | 3.57 | 3.59 | 3.60 | 3.62 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CNY 31.54M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 19.6% | CNY 37.72M | 0.940 | CNY 35.47M |
| Year 2 | 19.6% | CNY 45.11M | 0.884 | CNY 39.90M |
| Year 3 | 19.6% | CNY 53.95M | 0.832 | CNY 44.88M |
| Year 4 | 19.6% | CNY 64.53M | 0.782 | CNY 50.48M |
| Year 5 | 19.6% | CNY 77.17M | 0.736 | CNY 56.78M |
| Year 6 | 16.2% | CNY 89.66M | 0.692 | CNY 62.04M |
| Year 7 | 12.8% | CNY 101.10M | 0.651 | CNY 65.79M |
| Year 8 | 9.3% | CNY 110.54M | 0.612 | CNY 67.65M |
| Year 9 | 5.9% | CNY 117.09M | 0.576 | CNY 67.39M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CNY 120.02M | 0.541 | CNY 64.97M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.