000488.SZ
SCPHClosed000488.SZ discounted cash flow valuation
000488.SZ Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 52.1% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against -5.0% in this model.
Model: -5.0% from 3-yr revenue CAGR (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 5.49% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CNY 431.66M |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (71% of EV) | CNY 1.07B |
| Enterprise value | CNY 1.50B |
| + Cash & investments | CNY 215.08M |
| − Total debt | −CNY 32.66B |
| Equity value | −CNY 30.94B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 1.71B |
| Value per share | CNY -18.13 |
| Market cap | CNY 5.91B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 2.6% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 84.7% |
| WACC | 5.49% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.49% | -17.64 | -17.24 | -16.44 | — | — |
| 4.49% | -18.08 | -17.93 | -17.71 | -17.33 | -16.58 |
| 5.49% | -18.31 | -18.23 | -18.13 | -17.99 | -17.78 |
| 6.49% | -18.44 | -18.40 | -18.34 | -18.27 | -18.17 |
| 7.49% | -18.53 | -18.50 | -18.47 | -18.43 | -18.37 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CNY 70.67M | — | — |
| Year 1 | -5.0% | CNY 67.13M | 0.948 | CNY 63.64M |
| Year 2 | -5.0% | CNY 63.78M | 0.899 | CNY 57.31M |
| Year 3 | -5.0% | CNY 60.59M | 0.852 | CNY 51.61M |
| Year 4 | -5.0% | CNY 57.56M | 0.808 | CNY 46.48M |
| Year 5 | -5.0% | CNY 54.68M | 0.765 | CNY 41.86M |
| Year 6 | -3.5% | CNY 52.77M | 0.726 | CNY 38.29M |
| Year 7 | -2.0% | CNY 51.71M | 0.688 | CNY 35.57M |
| Year 8 | -0.5% | CNY 51.45M | 0.652 | CNY 33.55M |
| Year 9 | 1.0% | CNY 51.97M | 0.618 | CNY 32.12M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CNY 53.27M | 0.586 | CNY 31.21M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.